DUBAI: The world will likely enter a recession by next year as
the backlash against globalization continues to grow, economist
Paul Krugman predicted on Monday.
Speaking at the World Government Summit in Dubai, Krugman warned
that world was witnessing a landscape of stagnant wages, growing
inequalities, and a loss of confidence in the world’s business
leaders which in turn led to a populist backlash against
“The result is clear: forward motion on globalization has
stopped, but it was slowing anyway,” Krugman said.
And he said there is “quite a good chance that we will have a
recession late this year or next year.”
He said there was a general lack of preparedness among economic
“The main concern has always been that we don’t have an
effective response if things slow down…we don’t seem to have a
Krugman said central banks lacked the tools required to protect
against market turmoil, and planning for risk has been minimal.
Instead, trade wars and growing protectionism continue to
dominate policy agendas, deferring attention and resources from
what should be the real priorities.
“I don’t see the iceberg out there, but if we do hit one, I
know for sure this liner is not unsinkable,” Krugman said,
comparing the global economy to the Titanic.
He said people felt short changed by the previous generation of
economic growth, but he said those discussing a solution seemed not
to be touching on the issue.
“The question is what they want as the solution…turns out
that’s not as clear,” Krugman said, highlighting what he called
the gap leaders needed to fill in order to avert another “Great
On what many are calling the Fourth Industrial Revolution,
Krugman warned that, contrary to popular belief “technological
change is actually relatively sluggish right now.”
And he said he doubted the claims that technology was so
advanced it would soon change the way we work and live, adding
“this is not a transformative revolutionary era.”
Krugman concluded that despite the technological advancements of
the last 25 years, the way we work “had not changed all that
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Source: FS – All-News-Economy
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